Economic forecast still shows a green light short term


Oregon Employment Gains graph   The Office of Economic Analysis released its quarterly economic and revenue forecast this week.
   State economists say all factors are looking good in the short term, but economists are cautious about the long term outlook.
   Economist Josh Lehner posted about the forecast in his blog and talked about looking towards 2020.
   He said, "At this time (2020), federal fiscal policy will be a drag on economic growth and monetary policy is expected to have transitioned from accommodative, to neutral, and potentially even restrictive. Should this fully come to pass, a recession is likely to follow. However, this outcome is not a foregone conclusion. Rather, for really the first time this cycle, it is a reasonable, and clear scenario for how this expansion ends." 
   For the moment, Lehner said economic growth continues at a stable rate with wages increasing at a faster rate than other states.
   If the September forecast holds true, Oregon's personal income tax and corporate tax kickers will come into play.
   Lehner said both tax kickers would be the largest amount in more than 10 years - $686 million for personal, $208 million for corporate.
   To read more, visit Lehner's blog.