Economic forecast - sweet with some bear watching


Biennial Revenue Growth   Oregon's quarterly economic forecast was released this week and shows good conditions in the near term.
   Economist Josh Lehner from the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis said in his blog, "In Oregon, the outlook remains bright as the economy continues to hit the sweet spot. Wages are rising faster than in the typical state, as are household incomes."
   While Oregonians enjoy the current economic conditions, Lehner said there are some risk factors economists are continuing to monitor.
   "First is the Federal Reserve's ability to engineer a soft landing. Second is the potential for deteriorating international relations and trade. Third is the recent run-up in energy prices which crimp household budgets in the near-term. To date, actual constraints on growth appear to be minimal, but bear watching in a mature expansion," said Lehner. 
   With the end of the peak of tax filing season, Lehner said tax collections came in at a healthy rate and sooner than expected, which could be due to changes at the federal level.
   Lehner said, "Together with healthy economic growth and strong tax collections, law changes have helped push both personal income taxes and corporate income taxes over their kicker thresholds. If this outlook holds true, $555 million in personal income tax kicker credits will be paid out two years from now, and an additional $197 million will be dedicated to spending on K-12 education next biennium."
   To read Lehner's blog, click here.
   For the latest quarterly state forecast, click here.